Recursive programming and system dynamics models applied to the Philippine iron and steel industry | |
| Author | Malonzo, Martin Carmona |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. 1156 |
| Subject(s) | Steel industry and trade--Philippines Recursive programming Iron industry and trade--Philippines |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering of the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study has been aimed at describing industrial growth patterns over and through a period of time. The quantitative models developed were applied to the Philippine iron and steel industry. The results of the models give a fair and positive description of reality for 1965-1971. It also delineated projections for the years 1972-1985, which follow the expectations for the growth of the industry. The models developed used the Recursive Programming and System Dynamics methodologies. Both models are compared in their ability to catch the dynamic behavior of factors that shape the industry. Production, importation and consumption patterns were the main considerations by the models and these are applied to the eight primary iron and steel products, namely, hot-rolled sheets and strips, cold-rolled sheets and strips, tinplates, galvanized iron sheets, pipes and tubes, billets, merchant bars and wire rods. The behavioral patterns delineated by the two models give two spheres of applications as management tools for decision making. The Recursive Linear Programming (RLP) model addresses its most important use in tracing historical events of the industry and forecasts of future trends for policy decisions. On the other hand, the System Dynamics (SD) model shows the fluctuations of production, importation and consumption inherent of the industry vital for long-term stabilization policies. The quantitative results are framed with the qualitative conditions of the industry which are found to be complementary. The overall view of growth of this particular industry is one of optimism, and that if this were to continue development of analytical tools for continuous forecasting and evaluation framed with reality are essential to the stability and viability of this important industry. |
| Year | 1976 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | Student Research Before 1980 |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Thesis (Year <=1979) |
| Chairperson(s) | Sharif, M. N. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Pakorn Adulbhan ; Techapun Raengkhum |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Australia |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1976 |