Assessment of historical and projected changes of land use and land cover in mainland Southeast Asia | |
| Author | Aung Chit Moe |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.RS-23-06 |
| Subject(s) | Land use--Southeast Asia--Data processing Markov processes |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study examines land use changes in mainland Southeast Asia, focusing on drivers, impacts, and future scenarios. Historical analysis between 2000 and 2020 reveals that urban areas expanded from 640,800 hectares to 1,784,178 hectares, while forest cover decreased from 133,467,966 hectares to 132,761,340 hectares. Agricultural loss was observed, with a decrease from 106,898,661 hectares to 106,469,370 hectares. Notable transitions were observed at the hydro lake river basin scale, including forest-to- agriculture conversions and agricultural-to-urban areas around major cities. Future land use scenarios were projected based on historical changes and key driver variables such as population density, cropland patterns, GDP fluctuations, precipitation and temperature trends, forest restoration plans, slope, proximity to cities, and road accessibility. Under the Business' As Usual Trend Scenario, urban expansion is projected to increase to 2.18% by 2100, accompanied by agricultural expansion reaching 48.77%. Porest areas are projected to decline to 44.52% by 2100.The Forest Conservation Scenario aims to increase forest areas to 53.61% while limiting urban expansion to 0.46%. The Economic Development Scenario predicts significant urban expansion, with urban areas reaching 2.44% by 2100 and agricultural expansion reaching 50.49%. Forest areas are projected to decrease to 42.59%. Comparing current trends from 2010 to 2020, the study observes a gradual increase in forest areas and a corresponding decrease in agricultural areas, aligning with the regional land use patterns' forest conservation trend. On national scale, diverse rates of urban and agricultural expansion, deforestation, and reforestation are observed under different scenarios, including comparisons of these scenarios. This study provides valuable insights for sustainable land management and conservation efforts in mainland Southeast Asia. |
| Year | 2023 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (RS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Virdis, Salvatore G.P. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Tripathi, Nitin Kumar;Thi, Phuoc Lai Nguyen |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Loom Nam Khong Pijai (GMS Scholarships) |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2023 |