Mapping the present and predicting the future impact of climate change on crop suitability in Thailand | |
| Author | Kaung Khant Min Hein |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-24-19 |
| Subject(s) | Crops and climate--Thailand Climatic changes--Thailand Crops--Mathematical models |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Climate change is having a major impact on every part of the world, making it an increasingly difficult situation for every country. As global temperatures rise and weather patterns become more erratic, the suitability of land for certain crops is changing. Climate change and crop suitability are intricately connected, particularly in the context of agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) as seen in the PyAEZ model. PyAEZ is a Python library that uses climate data for analyzing and visualizing crop suitability. It is a powerful tool that can be used to study the impact of climate change on specific crops at the national level. PyAEZ can be used to visualize maximum potential attainable yield and starting date of specific crop, and inform decisions about climate adaptation and mitigation on crop suitability. In this study, General Circulation Models (GCMs) undergo a statistical downscaling and bias correction process applying empirical quantile mapping to get higher resolution data to feed into PyAEZ for better visualizations. PyAEZ is used to study the impact of climate change on crop suitability in Thailand for the present and future periods of potential maximum attainable yield and starting date on specific crop. For this study, four different crops are used to map the maximum potential attainable yield which are rice, maize, sugarcane, and cassava. In addition to the existing data on maize, this study has incorporated data on three additional crops: rice, sugarcane, and cassava.These crops were selected due to their significant roles in Thailand's agricultural sector and their contribution to both domestic consumption and export markets.The results indicate that crop suitability is significantly affected by shifts by climate change. Maize is the most suitable crop as its results show less fluctuation among the 4 crops, Rice shows a significant decrease, especially in rainfed conditions. Other crops like sugarcane and cassava are experience a decline in yield under future conditions, especially in far-future scenarios. These findings underscore the importance of adaptive agricultural strategies and irrigation in mitigating the effects of climate change, thus providing crucial insights into Thailand's agricultural planning and food security.These insights are crucial for agricultural planning and adaptation strategies in Thailand. |
| Year | 2024 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Natthachet Tangdamrongsub; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT Scholarships; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2024 |