Long term energy system planning of Nepal : an assessment of linkage between electrified transport sector and hydropower development | |
| Author | Shrestha, Shubha Laxmi |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-07-17 |
| Subject(s) | Energy development--Nepal Energy policy--Nepal |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Energy Economics and Planning |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Nepal energy system model on MARKAL framework is developed for long term energy planning. This model is used to analyze the least cost structure of energy supply, sectoral growth of energy consumption, power system development, role of energy sources, sensitiveness of energy system towards uncertain parameters such as discount rate, capacity cost of hydropower plants, and capacity cost of new efficient technologies with three different economic scenarios. Transport sector in detail is analyzed to see the characteristics features toward electrification. In economic growth scenarios, total primary energy supply to the system is found to require among 1.9% to 3.6% average annual growth rate (AAGR). Mitigation of greenhouse gas emission is found to be not a big concern with respect to development by the end of the planning horizon. The CO2 emission per capita is found in well below magnitude compared to world average until the end of planning horizon with all economic growth scenarios. Hydropower will have lion's share in power sector throughout the planning horizon. The system would require 7.9% to 11.5% AAGR in electricity generation to cope the demands from end-use technology growth. Power system should acquire 7.0% to 10.6% AAGR. Agriculture sector is found to be heavily dependent in diesel fuel. Electricity and solar will play major role in service sector with 4.7% to 7.7% AAGR in total energy consumption. Industry sector found heavily dependent on coal and electricity with 6.6% to 10.0% AAGR in total energy consumption. Residential sector is found to have its own characteristics with nation's geographic regions. Terai region is found to have the highest with 36% and mountain as the lowest with 11 % share as energy consumer for residential sector by 2030. Kathmandu region is found as one of the major region with 25% share as energy consumer by 2030. Water heating demand found to have major share in energy consumption for regions without considering the affordability from demand side. The system will favor hydropower more as power producer in the system when the discount rate becomes less than 5%. Effects of reduction in capacity cost of hydropower plants only sensed with 1100US$/kW while untouched increased upto 3000US$/kW. If the price of petroleum escalated by 15% annually then the power system infrastructure has to be developed more than two times in comparison to base case by the end of 2030, which is a very interesting result. Electrified ropeway is found to be the most attractive option particularly in mountainous region. With the introduction of electrified railway by 2020, it was found to be the most attractive option for hill and terai regions. These options forced to develop additional infrastructure of hydropower by 100, 1120 and 2790MW in median years 2020, 2025, 2030 respectively for base case. Effect of 20% reduction in capacity cost of electric road vehicles forced the system to acquire electric buses to serve 40% of total passenger demand. This will lead to develop extra power system by 230, 420 and 570 MW in median years 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively. Afterwards only 50% reduction will give effect to become the most attractive option to serve total passenger demand. Fuel cell technology found favorable to the system only when its capacity cost of the technologies related is reduced by 55%. With that much of reduction, the system gives it a share of 40% passenger travel demand and requires the extra power system of 110, 470 and 860 MW in median years 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively. |
| Year | 2007 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Kumar, Sivanappan;Dutta, Animesh; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Norway; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2007 |