Water-centric adaptation for drought risk in agriculture : a case study of drought hotspots in Nepal | |
| Author | Regmi, Sujata |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-23-10 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Nepal--Case studies Agriculture--Effect of drought on--Nepal Water-supply, Agricultural--Nepal Droughts--Nepal |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | With its climate-sensitive ecosystem, fragile geography and diversified socioeconomic conditions, Nepal is susceptible to water-induced hazards such as drought. This thesis investigates past climate trends and future projections, calculates the SPEI drought index and conducts indicator-based VRA to identify drought hotspots, and identifies water-centric adaptation practices suitable for the hotspot region. The study uses Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, NorESM2-MM and UKESM1-0-LL. It explores the spatial variation of climate for near (2021-2040), mid (2041-2060), and far-future (2081-2100) time scales compared to baseline (1995-2014) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The study assesses drought hazard for Nepal using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify climate hotspots in the country and prioritizes water-centric climate smart agriculture practices appropriate for adapting to climate risks in the hotspots using expert survey and literature review. The study revealed that the annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures over Nepal will increase significantly for all future time scales, with more significant increases under SSP5-8.5. Moreover, there will be an increase in annual mean precipitation under UKESM1-0-LL but a decrease in precipitation under NorESM2-MM. Additionally, the mapping of droughts revealed Karnali province to have a high drought occurrence. NorESM2-MM shows increases in drought occurrence in the near, mid and far-future while UKESM1-0-LL shows an increase in the near and mid-future but a decrease in the far future. The results further indicate that several of moderate drought events will occur more frequently than that of severe and extreme drought events. The study shortlisted 17 water-centric practices based on their smartness, relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability. The study's findings will be helpful in updating hazard mitigation plans and policies and conducting risk assessments, disaster preparedness, and disaster risk reduction, as well as promoting adaptation strategies in the agriculture sector for areas with similar topography, climatic conditions, and climate-induced droughts. |
| Year | 2023 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh;Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Scholarships;Student Assistantship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2023 |