Climate change vulnerability assessment on crop system and adaptation strategies in Northern Thailand | |
| Author | Thakur, Vishal |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-22-05 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Thailand--Northern Droughts--Thailand--Northern |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Climate change is expected to affect water resources and crop production. The Northern region of Thailand has been identified as vulnerable to climate change due to its low adaptive capacity. This study aims to assess the future vulnerability on crop yield and its changes corresponding to the adaptation options proposed in this study. Three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) under three climate change scenarios (SSP245, SSP16 and SSP585) were bias corrected using the Lapse rate linear regression technique to project the future climate in the study region. Three future period was considered NF (2022-2045), MF (2046-2070), FF (2071-2095). The Aqua crop model was used to simulate rice growth and yield for the rainfed rice season. The future Yield and crop water productivity (CWP) were also evaluated. By using the future simulations 3 adaptations plans were developed (i) Change in the planting data (ii) Applying supplemental irrigation (iii) Applying both the cases. Results shows that in future the climate have increasing trend for temperature whereas decreasing trend for precipitations for whole study area. Also for all seasons there is decrease in precipitation. Precipitation decrease from 17%-10% in the NF, 12%-10% in MF and 10%-5% in FF similarly temperature rises 0.75-1 0C in NF, 1.5-2 0C in MF and 2-3 0C in FF for all the SSP scenarios. The proposed adaptation plan reduces the impact significantly and increasing the yield of paddy significantly. Each individual adaptation plan is significant increase the yield in future varying from 50% to 110%. For all the future periods the norther part of the province remains in highly vulnerable class whereas other part of the province lies in low vulnerable to medium vulnerable class. |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram |
| Examination Committee(s) | Babel, Mukand S.;Shrestha, Sangam |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thai Pipe;Asian Institute of Technology Scholarship and Living allowances by Dr. Mohana Sundaram |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2022 |