| Author | Ahmad, Sajjad |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. WM-95-19 |
| Subject(s) | Flood forecasting--Pakistan
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Civil Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-95-19 |
| Abstract | The main objective of this study is to improve the Real Time Forecasting of Floods and Reservoir Inflows through the application of state-of-the-art modeling technology and to explore the Flood Management Possibilities through Reservoir operation, using improved forecasts. The MIKEI 1 flood forecasting system developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute is used for real-time flood and reservoir inflow forecasting. It comprises a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model NAM, a hydrodynamic model HD for river routing, an up dating procedure for real time operation and a comprehensive data management system HIS. The model parameters are determined by trial and error procedure. The study area covering 14860 km2 is a part of Jhelum River Basin in Pakistan, with Mangla Dam situated at the down stream end. The model is calibrated and verified at five gauging stations using daily rainfall data from 12 rain gauges and daily discharge data from 3 stream gauging stations for the period of 1985 to 1991. Five statistical parameters are used to evaluate the performance of the model. They are Deviation of run off volume Dv, Nash Sutcliffec coefficient R2 , Root mean square error mean (RMSEM), Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Mean relative error (MRE). Real time forecasts of historic floods of 1976 and 1992 are performed with 24 hour and 6 hour lead times respectively. Sensitivity analysis on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is made. The model performance for short term forecasts that is, 6 to 24 hours indicate robust system behavior in real time inflow prediction. Results indicate that if the accuracy of precipitation forecast is greater than 60 %, the error in the forecasted stream flow is less than 25 % for huge flood events. Sensitivity analyses show that large historic floods are highly sensitive to QPF. Finally, different reservoir operation scenarios for flood management are explored. |
| Year | 1995 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-95-19 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Civil Engineering |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Ammentorp, H. C.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Gupta, Ashim Das;Phien, Huynh Ngoc; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Japan.; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1995 |