Resiliency assessment of hydropower project under climate change in a Snow-Fed River Basin in Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region | |
| Author | Neupane, Prajwal |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-21-13 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region--Snow-Fed River Basin Hydroelectric power plants--Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region--Snow-Fed River Basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Snow fed rivers rising from Hindu‒Kush Himalayan region has valuable role to serve the one‒fifth population living in downstream region of this white reservoir. Climate change here is considered as the major driving factor to alter hydrological regime of such rivers and rise questions in water availability for future. Increasing these kinds of uncertainty is likely to influence the future performance of RoR hydropower and their adaptability towards possible impacts in future. This research focuses to assess the resiliency features of the RoR hydropower projects to the impacts created by future climate change on the hydrological regime of mountainous river basin. With changing climate significant alterations in hydrological components are expected, which further leads to change in storage of water as snow and glacier in Marsyangdi River basin. Future climate of the basin was generated by using three GCMs from latest CMIP6 project under SSP1‒2.6, SSP2‒4.5 and SSP5‒8.5 climate scenarios, extracted data from GCMs were further bias corrected using linear scale technique. All GCMs predicted increase of Tmax and Tmin with minimum annual average rise of around 1 ˚C to 6 ˚C. Increment in future rainfall is expected by around 9‒44% for all future periods Near‒ Future, Mid‒Future and Far‒Future. Spatial analysis of all three variables indicates that major rise is anticipated to occur in southern part of study area with noticeable increment in northern part as well. A hydrological model SWAT was setup using temperature index method for snow modeling; major inputs for the model were geo‒ spatial data and hydrometeorological data of the study area. Future simulated hydrology of the watershed shows that significant rise in discharge at the basin outlet is estimated. The contribution in water yield from the northern part of basin is expected to rise due to snowmelt mostly for dry period of the year and from southern region due to heavy rainfall in monsoon. With increase in discharge availability the total energy generation is likely to increase and the occurrence of extreme hydrological events in mountainous region is unlikely to occur. In mountainous river basin under above future scenario, RoR hydropower are likely to perform well in both dry and wet period and able to generate sufficient energy without failing in disturbances, reflecting its resilient characteristics. |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram;Sarawut Ninsawat |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2021 |