Flood risk assessment in urban areas of Pakistan | |
| Author | Rana, Irfan Ahmad |
| Call Number | AIT Diss no.RD-17-03 |
| Subject(s) | Floods--Risk assessment--Pakistan Urban development--Pakistan |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Regional and Rural Development Planning |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Urban flood ing has been an alarming issue during the past years in several regions of the world, especially Asia. Understanding the degree of vulnerability and risk are essential to work out risk reduction measures. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in the frequency and severity of floods in the recent past - consequently the resultant damages have also soared significantly. There is an immediate need to evaluate flood risks and adaptation in flood prone communities, in order to effectively plan strategies for improving disaster preparedness and response. The broad objective is to develop risk assessment methodology and apply in different cities of Pakistan for understanding the similarities and differences between three communities. This research revisits the concepts behind disaster risk (actual risk), re lating directly to hazard and vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity), and inversely to capacity. Risk perception assessment is also equally important as it shows the community's wi llingness to implement flood preparedness measures. This study proposes a new methodology for actual risk assessment and risk perception in the light of disaster risk science and climate change adaptation for flood prone urban communities. This study utilizes both qualitative and quantitative methods. Multistage sampling was employed for selection of study area. Three cities with different population size situated in high risk flood zones of Pakistan were selected for empirical investigation. The cities were Rawalpindi with an urban population more than I million characterized by mixed functions, Sialkot with a population between 0.5 to I million that specializes in industrial function, and Muzaffargarh with a population below 0.5 million that reflects agro-industrial function. In last stage, three communities (neighborhoods) were selected based on frequent floodi ng and location along the nullahs and rivers. A total of 210 samples were collected using random sampling with the share of 70 from each urban community. Focus group discussions with local leaders, elders and youth were held to evaluate needs and challenges. Key informant interviews of offi cials from national to local level administration, and non-governmental organizations were done to incorporate institutional viewpoints. For questionnaire survey, an index based approach was employed for the assessment of actual risk and perceived risk of households through well-defined indicators. Levels of risk were identified using hazard, exposure, sensitivity and capacity components. Statistical tests were performed for identifying gaps between actual and perceived risk, and among communities. The study found significant differential risks among the communities in terms of actual and perceived risk. The difference between actual risks depends upon variations in hazard, exposure, sensitivity and capacity levels of communiti es. Significant differences was observed for hazard, sensitivity and capacity, but not exposure because of similar socioeconomic conditions prevalent in the communities. It was observed that Rawalpindi's community was less exposed to floods, but communities' vulnerabilities are higher due to poor socioeconomic conditions of households living in the flood prone area. Households in other two cities are more exposed to floods, however, they have strengthened their coping and adaptive capacities over time as compared to less exposed areas where households have failed to adapt. Comparative analyses between actual and perceived risk levels revealed the presence of a significant gap between the two types of risk, but reflect a positive correlation in all three communities. Qualitative analyses have identified several key challenges faced by communities and institutions alike. District disaster management authorities are still non-existent in the field, and local authorities are managing flood disasters on adhoc basis. Urban flood risk management in Pakistan needs to be shifted from a "reactive" to "proactive" approach. This study establishes the theory that perceived risk indeed increases with respect to actual risk. This methodology can be replicated both in rural and urban context, and can also be applied to other types of hazards and disasters by streamlining disaster specific ind icators under the four components; hazard, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. This study contributes to the existing knowledge for academics working in the field of disaster risk science, and helps in improving the knowledge base of methodologies and indicators used for flood risk assessment. Moreover, the study will prove to be very useful for policy makers, urban planners and disaster managers for effective disaster risk reduction. |
| Year | 2017 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Rural Development, Gender and Resources (RD) |
| Chairperson(s) | Routray, Jayant Kumar |
| Examination Committee(s) | Ahmad, Mokbul Morshed;Babel, Mukand Singh |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan - AIT Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2017 |