Projection of future climate in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand | |
| Author | Pokharel, Itasha |
| Call Number | AIT Caps. Proj. no.CIE-16-12 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Thailand--Songkhram River Basin Climatic changes--Statistical methods Climatic changes--Mathematical models |
| Note | A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil And Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-16-12 |
| Abstract | Climate change is a global phenomenon with regional and local repercussions. Its impacts will change the ways ecosystems and humans interact. It will alter the availability of re- sources and subsequently the lives of those dependent on the resources. The Songkhram River Basin is a wetland ecosystem in North-East Thailand, vital for maintaining the eco- logical balance and livelihood of the people living in the area. It has undergone considerable land use changes in the past. The characteristics of the basin render the basin as well the sur- rounding community vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Three GCMs ACCESS 1, MIROC5 and MRI-CGMC3 were used to project the future precipitation and temperature in the basin. Linear scaling and quantile mapping were applied to remove the biases in the GCM simulated data for the baseline period of 1975-2004. Linear scaling performed better for precipitation while quantile mapping performed better for temperature. However, the performance of linear scaling for temperature is also satisfactory. Minimum temperature showed the most improvement among all the variables. MIROC5 shows the best perfor- mance for precipitation. ACCESS 1 also shows satisfactory performance. For temperature, ACCESS 1 showed relatively better results, though the performance of MIROC5 is also satis- factory. MRI -CGCM3 does not show much improvement after bias correction in case of both the variables. The future climatic variables were projected under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods, 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070- 2099). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, annual precipitation is expected to increase. Maximum variations are seen during the monsoon season. The change during the 2020s is not much. Winter precipitation is expected to increase during the 2050s and 2080s. Maximum and minimum temperatures are both expected to rise in the coming 90 years, though the increase in minimum temperature is larger. Under the RCP4.5 scenario of the three GCM ensem- ble, the annual average maximum and minimum temperature will increase by 1.5 DC-1.9 DC and 1. 78 DC-1.96 DC by the 2080s.Under the RCP8.5 scenario the increase is expected to be between 2.5 DC-3.2 DC and 3 DC-3.3 DC respectively. In lieu of the study, climate change im- pact assessments based on water resource availability and quality are recommended for the Songkhram River region. Adaptation measures should also be planned in order to minimise the effect of rising temperatures and varying rainfall patterns. |
| Year | 2016 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-16-12 |
| Type | Capstone Project |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Civil and Infrastructure Engineering (CIE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh; |
| Degree | Capstone Project (B.Sc.)-Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 |