| Author | Zhu, Qi |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. ISE-97-57 |
| Subject(s) | Electric power consumption--China, Northern--Forecasting
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. ISE-97-57 |
| Abstract | This study covers the development of models for the analysis of electricity demand on the different sectors in North China. Electricity demand forecasts using the different models were done from 1996 to 2010. Two approaches were used to forecast the demand of electricity and the system peak load in North China region, namely, explanatory approach and time-series approach. The explanatory approach was applied to the demand forecasting of electricity in different economic sectors and the peak load forecasting of the total power system. This method considers the exogenous factors including GDP, population and price of electricity, on the demand for electricity. The ARIMA model, one of time-series approaches, is applied to the total demand forecasting of electricity and the peak load forecasting of the electric power system of North China. The transfer function model, another time-series approach, is used to forecast the total demand of electricity. The study also analyzed the statistical sensitivities and errors of the different models, and compared the forecasting results using these models. The study indicates that the ARIMA model is more suitable to forecast the demand of electricity in the short run and the explanatory models are more suitable to forecast the demand of electricity and the peak load in the long run. Other results indicate that the growth rate of GDP is the main determinant for the demand of electricity. The higher the growth rate of GDP, the higher is the demand for electricity. The price of electricity in the long run has more marked effect on the demand of electricity th;m in the short run. The population has some effect on the demand of electricity, but this effect is very small. |
| Year | 1997 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. ISE-97-57 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Advanced Technologies (SAT) |
| Department | Department of Industrial Systems Engineering (DISE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Industrial Systems Engineering (ISE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Tang, C. S.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Nagarur, N. N.;Qi, Yulu; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1997 |