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Demand forecasting and production planning for a flour mill in China | |
Author | Li, Lian |
Call Number | AIT Thesis no. ISE-98-12 |
Subject(s) | Production planning--China |
Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies |
Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
Abstract | The main purpose of this study is to develop a demand forecasting model and production planning goal programming model to deal with multi-period and multi-product production planning problem for a case of a Flour Mill in China. The model allows management to arrive of desired goals as close as possible. Different kinds of forecasting techniques are analysed and Decomposition Method was selected. Testing with actual data, the model was found to be a good forecasting model by statistical method in that the forecasting errors are normally distributed with mean of zero. A Goal Programming approach has been used in this production planning problem and the best compromise solution is obtained under the given constraints and priority structure with the effective support of PC. Goal Programming model is found to be a better model when compared with existing plan especially in the aspect of reduction in profit and capital inventory investment. Sensitivity analysis on changing the goal priority structure and system parameters let decision maker look through all aspects of the problem and choose the best one suitable for the real condition of the factory. |
Year | 1998 |
Type | Thesis |
School | School of Advanced Technologies |
Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
Academic Program/FoS | Industrial Systems Engineering (ISE) |
Chairperson(s) | Tang, John C.S.; |
Examination Committee(s) | Pandey, P.C.;Yulu, Qi; |
Scholarship Donor(s) | The Royal Government of Belgium; AIT Alumni Association Grant; |
Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998 |