Projection of future rainfall in the dry zone of Sri Lanka | |
| Author | Chandanayake, Erandi H. |
| Call Number | AIT Caps. Proj. no.CIE-15-36 |
| Subject(s) | Rain and rainfall--Sri Lanka Rainfall frequencies--Mathematical models |
| Note | A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil And Infrastructure Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study present a Projection of Future Rainfall in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka for 2030s, 2050s and 2080s for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using 3 GCMs and baseline data of 30 years from 1960 to 1990 from Metrological Department Sri Lanka. For the analysis choses 5 rainfall stations, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Hambanthota, Mannar, Trincomalee from the dry zone. The 3 GCMs used here are BCC-CSM1.1, CCSM4 and MIROC5.For the bias correction use the Linear Scaling Bias Correction method. For the selection of GCMs, R2 and RMSE is used. The analysis for Rainfall is categorized under average annual rainfall, average monthly rainfall, rainfall monsoonal seasons and main two agricultural seasons. In 2080s for both RCP scenarios, average annual rainfall in the Dry zone will exceed the limit of 1800mm, which is the upper margin of the Dry zone rainfall. The influence of four monsoons are not homogeneous throughout the dry zone. The most influencing monsoon over the dry zone is Second Inter-monsoon. But this factor will change in the future periods and Northeast monsoon will become the dominating monsoon over the dry zone. There is an increase in rainfall in both Maha and Yala seasons in the Dry zone. In the lower elevations, all the three GCMs have almost the same characteristics. But when analyzing for the higher elevations all three GCMs perform different characteristics. |
| Year | 2015 |
| Type | Capstone Project |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Civil and Infrastructure Engineering (CIE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Datta, Avishek |
| Degree | Capstone Project (B.Sc.)-Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |