Projection of future rainfall in the dry zone of Sri Lanka | |
| Author | Warusamana, Wathsala J. |
| Call Number | AIT Caps. Proj. no.CIE-15-35 |
| Subject(s) | Rain and rainfall--Sri Lanka Rainfall frequencies--Mathematical models |
| Note | A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-15-35 |
| Abstract | This study on Projection of Future Rainfall in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka has been carried out to analyze about future rainfall trends and its variations over the Dry zone in Sri Lanka during three time periods; near future (2030s), middle future (2050s) and in far future (2080s). Analysis was done using three GCMs; BCC CSM 1.1, CCSM 4 and MIROC 5 under two RCP scenarios; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Linear Scaling bias correction was used to downscale GCM data. Average annual rainfall in Dry zone is projected to increase by 29% in RCP 4.5 scenario and by 32% in RCP 8.5 scenario during the period of 2015 - 2095. Maximum annual rainfall projections for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 are expected in 2080s. Monthly rainfall increase will be more significant than decrease. Although baseline results showed that the most influencing monsoon over the Dry zone is Second Intermonsoon, Northeast Monsoon will become the dominating monsoon over Dry zone in the future time periods. In RCP4.5 scenario, rainfall in Maha season is projected to increase by 37% and rainfall in Yala season will increase by 15%. Under RCP8.5 conditions, Maha rainfall will increase by 39% and Yala rainfall will increase by 23%. |
| Year | 2015 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-15-35 |
| Type | Capstone Project |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Civil and Infrastructure Engineering (CIE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Datta, Avishek; |
| Degree | Capstone Project (B.Sc.)-Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |