Projection of future rainfall in the Wangchu River Basin, Bhutan | |
| Author | Dorji, Tenzin Gyatsho |
| Call Number | AIT Caps. Proj. no.CIE-15-05 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Environmental aspects--Wangchu River Basin (Bhutan) Rain and rainfall--Wangchu River Basin (Bhutan) |
| Note | A Capstone Project report submitted in partial ful llment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering in Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-15-05 |
| Abstract | Climate change is a global phenomenon and its negative impacts has become a major concern in every field including fresh-water resources. This study aims to project the future rainfall changes of Wangchu River Basin in Bhutan. The bias of the rainfall data were corrected using the quantile mapping method. The change in projected rainfall were analyzed in three periods of the future. The first period is the early century period from 2006-2035 (2020s), the second period is the middle century period from 2036-2065 (2050s) and the last period is the late century period from 2066-2095 (2080s). Two General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used under two Regional Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the analysis. Projection of rainfall using CCSM4 model showed slight increase in annual rainfall under RCP4.5 (a 93 mm increase) and significant increase under RCP8.5 (a 253 mm increase). For the MRI-CGCM3 model, the projected rainfall showed an increase in annual rainfall under RCP8.5 (a 186 mm increase). However under RCP4.5 the model shows a 29 mm decrease in annual rainfall. Results from the average of the two GCMs projection showed that the average annual rainfall shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the greatest upturn in the 2050s under RCP4.5 and the 2080s under RCP8.5. Summer season is projected to receive more rainfall for both scenarios with an average increase of approximately 58 mm, whereas winter season shows the least rainfall change (10 mm) under both future scenarios. The highest mean monthly rainfall occurs in July for all the three periods (317 mm in 2020s, 328 mm in 2050s and 324 mm in 2080s). The average annual rainfall is projected to be at maximum in the 2050s (1262 mm, 6% increase) for RCP4.5 and in the 2080s (1405 mm, 19% increase) under RCP8.5. |
| Year | 2015 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-15-05 |
| Type | Capstone Project |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Civil and Infrastructure Engineering (CIE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Rajendra Prasad; |
| Degree | Capstone Project (B.Sc.)-Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |