Prediction of inflow to Buon Tua Srah Reservoir, Vietnam | |
| Author | Vo Trong Son |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-06-7 |
| Subject(s) | Streamflow--Vietnam--Buon Tua Srah Reservoir--Forecasting Rain and rainfall--Vietnam--Buon Tua Srah Reservoir--Forecasting |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Accurate forecast of inflow to reservoir is of particular interest for reservoir operation and scheduling. For hydropower reservoir equipped with control gates, improved criteria for gates operation can be assessed if reliable forecast of inflow to the reservoir is available. Prediction of rainfall should be considered for extension of lead-time of discharge forecast. This study presents three folds. Firstly, the application of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and Nam model for daily inflow forecast. Secondly, the application of the Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with Principle Component Analysis technique and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for 1day and 2days ahead rainfall forecast. Thirdly, the application of ANN model for lday ahead, 2days ahead and 3days ahead discharge forecasting using forecast of rainfall and streamflow. Besides, the combination of Deterministic model and Stochastic model (BPNN+ AR(3)) is used to improve the efficiency of results. The ANN model (WinNN32) has been applied for daily rainfall forecast based on the Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with Principle Component Analysis technique. The ANN model cannot be directly applied to forecast discontinuous signals, like rainfall time series, as the universal function approximation theorems for neural networks system that requires the continuity of the function to be approximated. In order to avoid the effect of discontinuous of a signal, the SSA technique is applied to forecast the signal by decomposing the raw rainfall time series into reconstructed components. Then, reconstructed components are simulated by ANN to obtain rainfall time series forecast for several lead-times (1day and 2days respectively). After that, rainfall forecast is obtained as inputs for prediction of inflow to the Buon Tua Srah reservoir at Due Xuyen station. The results of the forecast of inflow to Buon Tua Srah reservoir at Due Xuyen station are found to be satisfactory for lead time from 1day to 3days. |
| Year | 2007 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Tawatchai Tingsanchali; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Clemente, Roberto S.;Sutat Weesakul;Vilas Nitivattananon; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Electricity of Vietnam (EVN);AIT Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2007 |