1 AIT Asian Institute of Technology

Combining predictive and case-based reasoning for university student performance prediction

AuthorNguyen Thi Ngoc Hien
Call NumberAIT Thesis no.IM-07-15
Subject(s)Students--Rating of
Bayesian statistical decision theory

NoteA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Information Management, School of Engineering and Technology
PublisherAsian Institute of Technology
Series StatementThesis ; no. IM-07-15
AbstractIn today's transnational admission environment, evaluating applicant qualifications is becoming increasingly challenging. While standardized tests can be helpful, studies have shown that they are rather noisy predictors of performance. Predicting educational outcome is a viable alternative in such heterogeneous environments. Performance prediction models can be built by applying data mining techniques to enrollment data. The thesis presents an approach to using Bayesian networks to predict graduating cumulative Grade Point Average based on applicant background at the time of admission. While such prediction models can be helpful, their recommendations may not be followed by departmental faculty members making admission decisions if they are presented as black boxes. The thesis thus presents a novel approach to deriving a case-based retrieval mechanism from the Bayesian network prediction model in such a way that the similarity measure used by the case-based system is consistent with the predictive model. The case¬based component retrieves the past student most similar to the applicant being evaluated. The Bayesian network model is evaluated using stratified ten-fold cross validation
Year2007
Corresponding Series Added EntryAsian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. IM-07-15
TypeThesis
SchoolSchool of Engineering and Technology (SET)
DepartmentDepartment of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT)
Academic Program/FoSInformation Management (IM)
Chairperson(s)Haddawy, Peter;
Examination Committee(s)Dailey, Matthew;Janecek, Paul;
Scholarship Donor(s)Government of Vietnam;
DegreeThesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2007


Usage Metrics
View Detail0
Read PDF0
Download PDF0