Long-term energy strategies in Vietnam with greenhouse gas mitigation considerations | |
| Author | Phan Minh Quoc Binh |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-04-01 |
| Subject(s) | Greenhouse gas mitigation--Vietnam Renewable energy sources--Vietnam |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. ET-04-01 |
| Abstract | The Vietnam AIM/Local model with GIS interface has been developed to analyze the implications for C02, S02 and NOx emissions in the regional level from Large Point Sources (LPS) and Area Sources (AS). The fuel-mix, technology-mix implications and the role of renewable energy resources, efficient technologies of the least cost energy system development in Vietnam are also analyzed in this study. The study is conducted in the planning horizon of 2000-2030 under Base case and various C02 and S02 emission mitigation targets. Vietnam AIM/Local model with GIS interface is firstly constructed to plan the energy system and especially to analyze the implications for environmental emissions in the local level in Vietnam. A set of database on region, technology, energy, sector and service demand, stock of devices, etc. in the whole Vietnam energy system including the large point sources and area sources is input into the model. With the help of GIS, the emissions from LPS and AS for each province in Vietnam will be displayed in the map. The major findings of this study can be summarized as follows. The total primary energy supply in Vietnam would increase from 15.9 Mtoe in 2000 to 131. 7 Mtoe in 2030 in the base case. This would be slightly reduced under the C02 and S02 emission reduction constraints due to energy savings resulted by the replacement of energy inefficient technologies by energy efficient ones. Gas and hydropower based power generations are selected as the main electricity supply sources in Vietnam while the renewable energy sources based power generation such as biomass, solar, wind, and geothermal is found not cost effective in the Base case during 2000-2030. However, biomass based power generation would be used to replace for coal and natural gas based power generation under C02 emission reduction scenarios. Energy efficient technologies play an important role in energy savings and greenhouse gas mitigation. Compared to the Base case, the total energy savings in 2030 in ERl 5 and SER 15 cases due to the replacement of energy efficient technologies would be 4.23 Mtoe (2.9%) and 2.47 Mtoe (1. 7%), respectively. The total accumulated C02 emission during 2000-2030 in the Base case, under the least cost energy supply system would be 4,655 .5 million tons while total accumulated S02 and NOx emissions would be 8.3 and 9.7 million tons, respectively. Vietnam's emissions inventory estimates indicate that LPS contribute around 55% of S02 emissions and 45% of C02 and NOx emissions. Among the considered LPS, ones from steel, cement and power sectors accounted for significant share in the total national emissions. Industry, transportation and power generation sectors accounted for the highest share in total national emissions. The results from GIS show that large cities and industrial centers such as Ho Chi Minh, Ha Noi, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Bae Ninh and Hung Yen are the areas with the highest emissions in Vietnam. The total cost of energy system in the Base case is 69,086 million USD. The total cost in ER cases significantly increases with the level of emission reduction constraints while that of SER cases slightly increases. Compared to the Base case, the total cost in ERl 5 case would increase by 1,548 million USD (2.24%) while that of SER15 case would increase by 112 million USD (0.16%). |
| Year | 2004 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. ET-04-01 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram Manohar |
| Examination Committee(s) | Kumar, Sivanappan; Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology (AIT); Petro Vietnam |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2004 |