Development and application of a framework to assess the adaptive capacity of cities to flood hazards induced by climate change | |
| Author | Nawhath Thanvisitthpon |
| Call Number | AIT Diss no.CC-20-01 |
| Subject(s) | Climate changes Flood control |
| Note | A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Sustainable Development, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. CC-20-01 |
| Abstract | Today over half of the world’s population live in urban areas, By 2050, global population is projected to increase to around 9.8 billion. Out of this number, 6.7 billion people are expected to be living in urban settings. Currently, many urban areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, especially urban flooding. It is very imperative to assess the adaptive capacity of urban areas to flooding induced by climate change and extreme weather events for the urban flood risk management. Therefore, this research aims to determine the flood adaptive capacity of Thailand’s urban areas using flood adaptive capacity index (ACI) based on 21 adaptive capacity indicators associated with six adaptive capacity components. The six adaptive capacity components include economic resources, social capital, awareness and training, technology, infrastructure, and institutions and policies. In this research, a framework to assess the flood adaptive capacity of cities was developed first and then applied to two municipalities in Thailand namely, Ayutthaya and Phetchaburi municipality respectively. The adaptive capacity indicators to calculate the flood adaptive capacity index were validated by a panel of specialists and 230 sampled households in 10 flood-prone municipalities across Thailand using a questionnaire. The responses were validated by structural equation modeling (SEM). The composite reliability (CR) and average variance expected (AVE) are 0.679 – 0.899 and 0.441 – 0.679, respectively, given that CR > 0.6 or AVE > 0.5 is acceptable. The first-order loading factors of six adaptive components are 0.301-0.467, and the loading factors of adaptive capacity indicators are 0.525 – 0.938, given that a loading factor greater than 0.3 is acceptable. The validated adaptive capacity indicators were transformed into adaptive capacity questionnaire for assessment of flood adaptive capacity of two target municipalities, Ayutthaya and Phetchaburi municipality. The results indicated that the Ayutthaya municipality (ACI=0.774) has higher adaptive capacity to flooding compared to the Phetchaburi municipality (ACI=0.687). This research also projected climate change-induced rainfall by using climate data of three global climate models (GCMs): ACCESS1-0, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-LR under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are projected to increase higher in Phetchaburi municipality compared to Ayutthaya municipality in future. As Phetchaburi municipality’s adaptive capacity is found be lesser and expected to receive more extreme rainfall events in future, this research focused on the identification and prioritization of flood protection measures using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Among the 15 flood protection measures identified, the top 5 ranked measures include: upgrading floodwater drainage systems, construction of elevated roads to enable vehicular traffic and mobility in times of flood, provision of state-subsidized insurance programs that offer financial compensations to flood-affected residents , generating more business opportunities for incomes from multiple sources, and instituting systematic paid leave in times of severe flood. The flood adaptive capacity framework developed in this research can be applied to assess the adaptive capacity of urban areas to floods induced by climate change and extreme events and assess the strengths and shortcomings of existing anti-flood measures for the flood risk management. |
| Year | 2020 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. CC-20-01 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Climate Change and Sustainable Development (CC) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Pal, Indrajit;Duc Hoang Nguyen;Sarawut Ninasawat;Winai Chaowiwat; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi (RMUTT); |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2020 |