Long-term electricity demand forecasting by econometric and end-use models : the case of residential sector of Vietnam | |
| Author | Nguyen Vu Huy |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no.ET-02-05 |
| Subject(s) | Electricity--Econometric models--Vietnam Electric power consumption--Vietnam--Forecasting |
| Note | A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. ET-02-05 |
| Abstract | This study deals with analysis and forecast electricity demands of different consumers in residential sector in Vietnam. The demand forecast is carried out using two methods: econometric and end use approaches. For econometric analysis, static model and dynamic model were considered checking gradual factors which are considered effecting to electricity demand in each type of models and one appropriate model specification is used for forecasting long-term electricity demand in urban and rural areas. The dynamic econometric model or model with lagged variable is found suitable and was used to forecast demand till the year 2012. It is found that urban electricity demand increase with annual growth rate 7% pa in low scenario and 13% pa in high case, rural electricity demand increases with annual growth rate 10% pa in low scenario and 18% pa in high scenario. And electricity demand in residential sector found that to goes up at 15% pa in high scenario and 8% pa in low scenario. The study also considers elasticity of demand with respect to change in electricity price and income per capita and it found that electricity demand is significant sensitivity with respect to income per capita and electricity price in term of long term. For end use model used the change in socio-economic, electricity demand forecasting is carried out in the year 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2020, using MEDEE-S model with two scenarios. The result showed that electricity demand increase with annual growth rate 10% pa and 8% pa during 2003-2012 in high scenario and low scenario, respectively. |
| Year | 2002 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. ET-02-05 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Bhattacharyya, S.C.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, R.M.;Kumar, Sivanappan; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Electricity of Vietnam; |
| Degree | Research report (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technolog, 2002 |