Climate change impacts on water balance and streamflow regime in the jalaur river basin, Philippines | |
| Author | Jaspe, Christsam Joy S. |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-18-32 |
| Subject(s) | Streamflow--Philippines--Jalaur River Basin Climatic changes--Philippines--Jalaur River Basin Water balance (Hydrology)--Philippines--Jalaur River Basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study analyzed the effects of climate change to streamflow of the ungauged Jalaur Basin (JRB) and the impact to the components of the hydrological cycle. To compensate for the lack of data, global reanalyzed climate data from APHRODITE, CPCUnified and CFSR, were evaluated to identify the best representative of the climate conditions in the basin. Three RCMs, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5 and NorESM1-M, were analyzed to characterize climate change conditions in three time periods, namely, 2030s (2025-2049), 2055s (2050-2074) and 2080s (2075-2099) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The hydrologic model was developed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Calibration and validation of stream was done simultaneously in three flow gauging stations of Calinog, Passi and Pototan. Water balance components analyzed included precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface run-off, groundwater flow and water yield. Evaluation on impact on streamflow was based on the following indicators: annual streamflow, coefficient of variation, dry and wet season change in streamflow, timing of annual maximum flow, and low and high flows. Upon analysis, mean temperature is expected to increase throughout the JRB. Under RCP4.5, average increase is estimated at 1°C, and under RCP8.5, average increase is estimated at 1.67°C. Minimum and maximum temperature is projected to follow an increasing trend for three time period under in both climate scenarios. Significant reduction in rainfall will be experienced during the wet months of June to August resulting to a decrease in annual rainfall until the end of the century. With these phenomena, streamflow is highly variable in the Jalaur River. drastic changes in the volume of flow is to be expected, and mean annual, seasonal and high flow volumes are more likely to decrease. A more even distribution of flow is projected in the downstream and midstream areas. Due to the shifting of rainfall patterns, occurrence of peak flow shifted earlier than expected. With the impending construction of a multi-purpose dam, results of the analysis will prove to be significant in the operation and optimization of operations. |
| Year | 2018 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Duc Hoang Nguyen;Jr. Sevillo David ; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Commission on Higher Education, Philippines;Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2018 |