Managing drought for wheat under climate change in Umerkot district of Sindh, Pakistan | |
| Author | Rajper, Faisal Ahmed |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-19-43 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Pakistan--Umerkot district Drought management--Pakistan--Umerkot district Wheat--Climatic factors--Pakistan--Umerkot district |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The intensity and frequency of climate change sensitive hydro-meteorological extreme events like floods and droughts have been significantly increased since the 1970s. Drought is an environmental disaster that adversely affects the human, agriculture, land surface, river flow, and the environment. The study aimed to assess drought and analyse the impact of drought on the wheat yield of Sindh Province under climate change scenarios. To identify the historical and future drought, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index was used. Two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (ACCESS-CSIROCCAM & CNRM-CM-CSIROCCAM) were used to predict future droughts and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios. It was found that the rainfall is projected to increase in future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for ACCESS, whereas rainfall is projected to decrease under RCP 4.5 and increase under RCP 8.5 scenarios of CNRM. Future drought characteristics show that the frequency of the mild, moderate, and severe droughts is expected to increase in the future. Drought impact on wheat yield (in Umerkot district of the Sindh province) was modelled by using FAO’s AquaCrop model. Impact of irrigation with varying amount was estimated for yield. It was observed that there will be an increase in future yield due to increased precipitation, temperature and CO2 concentration, but drought will have an adverse impact on wheat yield. Various scenarios were generated for estimation of irrigation required to maintain and maximize for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. It was observed that the irrigation water required to maximize the wheat yield was more in RCP 8.5 as compared to RCP 8.5. |
| Year | 2019 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Irrigation Department, Government of Sindh, Pakistan; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2019 |