| Author | Chayanis Manusthiparom |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-99-01 |
| Subject(s) | Flood forecasting--Chao Phraya River
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of
Engineering. |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Hourly flow forecasting is necessary in coastal rivers and estuaries for the purposes of
flood control and mitigation, because the water level is greatly affected by the movement of
the tidal waves that continually fluctuate and the upland flood discharge as well as local
inflows. The interference of the tidal backwater with the upstream flow of the river increases
higher flood stages that enlarge flood plain inundation areas and increase potential flood
damages.
A Neural Network Model known as Back-Propagation algorithm (BP) is presented for
forecasting hourly water levels and discharges in the Chao Phraya River at Bangkok Memorial
Bridge (Station C4, km 48), Thailand for one, two and three hours in advance. The model
considers the river reach from the river mouth at Fort Chula to Bang Sai, a reach length of 112
km. The river flows is influenced by the effects of upstream discharge at Bang Sai (km 112),
the tide levels at Fort Chula (km I) and the local inflow along the river reach. The neural
network is calibrated and verified based on the observed data and computed results of the
MIKE-I I HD model. It was found that the combination of BPNN model and AR(3) model
yields even better results of forecasting in this study. However, the comparison of BPNN
model with NN model (early stopped by setting target error=0.20)+AR model shows that for
the same initial weights and the same output accuracy, the NN+AR model consumes much
less computation time especially the node numbers in the neural network model is large. |
| Year | 2000 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Tawatchai Tingsanchali; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Huynh Ngoc Phien;Mukand Singh Babel; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | The STARR Foundation; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2000 |