construction cost correlations in Monte Carlo simulation | |
| Author | Songkran Sorachaisumlit |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ST-00-46 |
| Subject(s) | Construction industry--Costs
SUBJECT Construction industry--Simulation methods |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering. |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Monte Carlo simulation is a method used for probabilistic cost estimating. Two important components affecting simulation output are distributions of cost elements and correlations between cost elements. The impact of correlations to the output is greater than that of distributions. Degree of correlations between cost elements is often difficult to define because of lack available data. There is lack of guideline on the degree of correlations and their sensitivities to simulation output in a variety of projects. Correlations between cost elements of housing and road projects are determined by computing Spearman correlation coefficients of 94 and 95 historical cost data respectively. Sensitivities of correlations to simulation output are analyzed by variation of the correlation coefficients, running simulations, and observing their effects. Correlations between cost elements are high for housing projects, but low for road projects. Correlation coefficients are not sensitive much to simulation output. The amount of sensitivity depends on the portion of cost elements to total cost and the variability of cost elements. The impact of including correlations in simulation is significant for housing projects but insignificant for road projects. |
| Year | 2000 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Structural Engineering (STE) /Former Name = Structural Engineering and Construction (ST) |
| Chairperson(s) | Manavazhi, Mohan Raj ; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Chotchai Charoenngam;Pichai Nimityongskul; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Partial Scholarship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) – Asian Institute of Technology, 2000 |