1 AIT Asian Institute of Technology

Construction demand modeling for thailand and pakistan: an examination of accuracy, techniques and applications

AuthorKashif, Khan Falahudin
Call NumberAIT Thesis no.ST-00-42
NoteA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering
PublisherAsian Institute of Technology
AbstractEconometric techniques are often used for modeling and forecasting construction demand. Accuracy, as the vital attribute of assessing predictive abilities of all such models, has been the topic of much research done in the developed countries. Not much research work has been done in developing countries. This research thesis evaluates the accuracy of the three models developed by a master degree student for modeling and forecasting sectoral construction demand of Thailand. An aggregate demand model for Pakistan's construction industry is also the part of this research. The results of the analysis showed that the sectoral models of Thailand did not attain an acceptable level of accuracy in either ex post forecasting or ex ante forecasting periods. The results of fitting enlarged models to the relatively long series of data established that the functional forms and inclusion of the same variables, used in the original models, might not adequately improve the accuracy of the models. The implication of these findings was to develop new models by including new variables and applying different functional forms for improving the accuracy of the models. It was established by the results that multiple linear regression techniques are suitable to model residential and other construction demand while demand for non-residential construction is best represented by multiple log-linear regression techniques. The total average accuracy gained by the new models over the original models, in the ex post forecast period, was 61.3 percent. Relative price index and the annual developmental expenditure mostly govern the demand for Pakistan construction. The two variables could only represent the 56 percent of the variation of the aggregate construction demand. The results of fitting seven functional forms to the economic indicators of Pakistan showed that an important variable or variables, other than the sixteen considered, might have improved the predictive performance of the models. The model selected from the seven, attained accuracy of 12.24 in terms of mean absolute percentage error. The general conclusion is that the proposed model can be used for ex ante forecasting in the absence of any other modeling tool.
Year2000
TypeThesis
SchoolSchool of Engineering and Technology (SET)
DepartmentDepartment of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE)
Academic Program/FoSStructural Engineering (STE) /Former Name = Structural Engineering and Construction (ST)
Chairperson(s)Ogunlana, Stephen 0.;
Examination Committee(s)Tang, John C. S.;Watanabe, Tsunemi ;
Scholarship Donor(s)Government of Japan;
DegreeThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology,2000


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