Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of the Dudhkoshi River Basin in Nepal | |
| Author | Pandey, Sajan Jung |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-15-19 |
| Subject(s) | Water-supply--Nepal--Dudhkoshi River Basin Climatic changes--Nepal--Dudhkoshi River Basin Hydrological models--Nepal--Dudhkoshi River Basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-15-19 |
| Abstract | Future climate change impacts the river hydrology and water resources, which has been major concern as it affects planning and policy of water management . Study of future impact on river hydrology helps decision makers for developing adaptation measures and preparedness against possible threat to water resources . This study aims to investigate the changes in future climate and analyze the impact it brings on hydrology and water resources on t he Dudhkoshi River basin, Nepal. Therefore, f uture projection of precipitation and temperature i s carried out for 2025s (2016 - 2043), 2055s (2044 - 2071) and 2085s (2072 - 2099) with five RCMs from CORDEX South - Asia , which are downscaled with quantile method of bias correction. Downscaled precipitation and temperature in future are used to simulate flow and water balance components for future , using calibrated and validated model parameters in SWAT model . Future anal ysis of climate, hydrology and water resources are carried out with respect to baseline period (1976 - 2005). Average annual maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase up to 4.21 o C and 4.53 o C by 2085s respectively. Extreme indices of tempera ture, tropical (T R ) and summer days (SU) , temperature of warm nights (TXn) , cold nights (TNn) , warm days (TXx) and cold days (TNx) are projected to increase . There is uncertainty from different models and scenarios in future projection of precipitation by - 11.4 to 66.8% during 2085s . Extreme indices of precipitation which represent extreme storms are projected to increase as indices such as wet day precipitation (R95p), maximum 1 day (RX1_day) and 5 day (RX5_day) precipitation increases at the end of 21 st c entury. H ydrolo gical model for the Dudhkoshi River basin is developed in SW AT model having NSE >0.7 , RSR <0.55 , R 2 > 0.85 and Pbias < ± 10 during calibration and validation period. Seasonal and annual flow mostly shows increment during 2085s with highest increment in spring up to 83.7% and annual up to 55% . High flow (Q5) show s range from - 0.5 to 49.4% while low flow (Q95) from - 2.9 to 94.1% during 2085s . Maximum probable flood is increasing from all models and scenarios at a r ange from 36.2 to 19 4.5% . Analysis of future impact on w ater balance components in Dudhkoshi River basin shows variation in precipi tation from - 9.2 to 21.2% , but due to rise in temperature contribution of snowfall to precipitation reduces up to 58.8% of baseline i.e. 0.27. Th erefore, s urface runoff, baseflow, and total water yield shows increasing range of 0.9 - 63.6%, 2.7 - 50.9% and 2.2 - 55% respectively during 2085s . E vapotranspiration are increasing from all the models and scenarios by 4.4 to 26.1% by the end of this century. |
| Year | 2015 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-15-19 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shinichi Nakamura;Shrestha, Sangam;Meon, Gunter |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |