Stream discharge response to climate change and land use change in Tamor Basin, Nepal | |
| Author | Sumitra, KC |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.NR-16-05 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Nepal--Tamor basin Land use--Nepal--Tamor basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Natural Resource Management, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. NR-16-05 |
| Abstract | Climate change and land use changeare two major issues that needto be addressed for sustainable landand water resource management. These are major factors influencing discharge in monsoon dominated basin. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change and land use change onfuture discharge of the Tamor basin in Nepal. Result from the study indicated maximum temperature will reachto 40.63°C in 2030s, 40.63°C in 2060s and 45.95°C in 2090s whichwas 35°C in baseline period(1976-2005). Annual average precipitationwas projected to changeby 17.64% under RCP 4.5 and by39.88%under RCP 8.5 till the end of the century as projectedby HadGEM2. Since the basin is monsoondominated, annual discharge was projected to increase by 12.25% under RCP 4.5 and by 32.67% under RCP 8.5 above baseline average till the end of the century.Resultusing HadGEM2 also showsthat peak flows that used to occur in August in baseline period will shift to July except in 2030s under RCP 4.5. However,CSIRO-Mk3.6.0projectsdecrease in annual precipitation and hence also discharge at the end of the century.Result from both Global Climate Modelsshowthat average monthlydischargedue to climate change will change positively as well as negativelyfor both scenarios.Due to combined impact of land use change and climate change,annual discharge was projected to changeby 16.53%, 21.28% and -4.39% under RCP 4.5 and by 38.29%, 45.64% and 13.06% underRCP 8.5till the end of the centuryfor conversion of forest into agricultural land, conversion of forest into barren land and conversion of barren land into forest respectively. Average annual discharge increased the most in case of conversion of forest into barren land and decreased or increased the least in case of conversion of barren land into forest. Unlike annual, seasonal response to combined impact was different. In monsoon and pre monsoon, discharge increasedor decreased the leastin case of conversion of forest into agricultural land andbarren land while increased the least or decreased in case of conversion of barrenland into forest. However, in post monsoon and winter, discharge decreased the least or increased the most in case of conversion of barren land into forest but discharge decreasedthe most or increased the leastin case of conversion of forest into agricultural land and barren land. |
| Year | 2016 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. NR-16-05 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Natural Resources Management (NRM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Rajendra Prasad |
| Examination Committee(s) | Jourdain, Damien;Shrestha, Sangam |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thailand (HM Queen) |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 |