A hybrid modeling approach for demand forecasting : a case study of raw material forecasting in the restaurant chain business | |
| Author | Thirut Supawongvisarn |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no.IM-10-05 |
| Subject(s) | Chain restaurants--Forecasting Hybrid computer simulation |
| Note | A research study submitted in partial fulfillment o f the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Information Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. IM-10-05 |
| Abstract | Demand forecasting plays an important role in many kinds of business. A restaurant chain business, the business that has a relatively large supply chain process involving several fresh raw materials needs an accurate demand foreca sting. Therefore, this paper is aimed at developing the demand forecasting of raw material b ased on a hybrid model that combines the most two commonly used time series forecasting models between Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for a linear comp onent and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for a nonlinear relationships. The idea of a hybrid model is simply derived from using the strength feature of these tw o different models to capture linearity and nonlinearity of data and to improve the forecas ting accuracy. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to measure the model performance. The development of hybrid model with t hree different real data sets is indicated that a hybrid model is a promising approa ch to improve forecasting accuracy as it gives better forecasting result than ARIMA and ANN models. |
| Year | 2010 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. IM-10-05 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Information Management (IM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Vatcharaporn Esichaikul; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Dailey, Matthew;Guha, Sumanta; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | RTG Fellowship; |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2010 |