Spatio-temporal diffusion pattern and hand, foot and mouth disease hazard zonation (HFMD-HZ) model using AHP and fuzzy logic in Northern Thailand | |
| Author | Ratchaphon Samphutthanon |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.RS-14-06 |
| Subject(s) | Environmental health--Geographic information systemst--Thailand, Northern Disease management--Geographic information systems--Thailand, Northern |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillmentof the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. RS-14-06 |
| Abstract | Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging illness infecting infants and children. It is characterized by fever, painful sores in the mouth and a rash with blisters on the hands, feet and buttocks. HFMD is most frequently caused by coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-71); however, most patients with fatal complications are infected with EV-71. At present, no effective chemoprophylaxis or vaccination approaches for dealing with HFMD are available. The transmission of HFMD occurs from person to person through direct contact with nasal discharge, saliva or fluid from the blisters. Other infection paths include food or water contaminated with fecal droplets, nasal discharge, fluid or saliva from an infectious person. Weather variables may affect the transmission of HFMD either directly or indirectly. Globally, HFMD outbreaks have been documented for more than four decades. It has been reported that in the last decade, the western Pacific region, including countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and China, was the area most severely affected by HFMD. Other countries, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei and Mongolia, were also impacted. HFMD has also progressed to become a leading cause of suffering and mortality in some developing countries, with Thailand finding itself among these. The current epidemic situation in Thailand, as reported by the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, includes HFMD outbreaks during the past 10 years, with the more severe in the last 5 to 6 years. Four deaths were caused by HFMD in 2008, and another four were reported in 2009. In 2011 and 2012, six and two deaths were reported, respectively. The northern region of Thailand has had the highest infection rate every year from 2003 to 2012In recent years, several studies have been conducted in different countries to understand the diffusion and transmission patterns of HFMD. However, very few studies have been conducted in Thailand. Moreover, attempts tounderstand the disease have focused solely on the study of medicine and public health or on its demographic distribution. Thus, a full understanding in terms of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease’s transmission pattern has not yet been established. Here, the application of GIS technology may prove useful by allowing for a spatial analysis concerning medical and public health. The assessment of spatio-temporal characteristics and disease associations with weather can provide valuable information for the efficient allocation of public health resources for disease prevention and treatment. The spatio-temporal features of an infectious disease are usually driven by certain determinants that can provide invaluable information for exploring the risk factors of the disease and contribute to developing effective measures to control and prevent its transmission. Spatio-temporal analysis is increasingly used in epidemiological research based on specific or routinely collected data from different sources. Therefore, a better understanding of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of HFMD would help in identifying areas and populations at high risk and then formulating and implementing appropriate regional public health intervention strategies to prevent and control the outbreak. ivThis research tried to elucidate HFMD outbreak phenomen by general statistics and spatial temporal analysis from 2003 to 2012. The statistical analysis showed a higher HFMD susceptibility in infants and a trend to shift slightly in older age. The yearly distribution pattern showed clusters, except in 2007. In 2003, the outbreak mainly spread in Lampang province. In 2012, the disease spread all around the study area with most cases recorded in Chiang Rai province in the north. Autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when the number of patient cases decreased. Outbreaks tended to increase in the rainy and the cold season compared to summer season. When considering whole years, overall temperature factors had a negative correlation with patient numbers. In contrast, humidity and rainfall showed a positive correlation. The outbreak spread pattern displayed a move from northeast to southwest direction. The results revealed a severely increasing trend of HFMD outbreaks. Therefore, all measures should be taken to control them.The lastobjective of this study was to develop an HFMD hazard zonation (HFMD-HZ) model by applying Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) methods for weighting each spatial factor such as disease incidence, socio-economic and physical factor. The outputs of AHP and FAHP calculations were fed into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) process and then a spatial analysis process. 14 criteria were selected as important factors for analysis as follows: disease incidence of 10 years from 2003 to 2012, population density, road density, land use and topographic feature. The results showed a consistency ratio (CR) value of main criteria forAHP of 0.075427 and a CR for FAHP of 0.092436. As these values were below the threshold of 0.1, they were acceptable. Linking to geospatial data through spatial analysis by GIS found that the results of the models were satisfying as the validation by actual data (disease incidence 2013) confirmed a good match, particularly for the FAHP analysis model. 2 big areas located in the center of Muang Chiang Mai district, including suburbs, and Muang Chiang Rai district, including neighbor areas, were established as the zones with the highest hazard of HFMD outbreaks. |
| Year | 2014 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. RS-14-06 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Remote Sensing (RS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Tripathi, Nitin Kumar |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sarawut Ninsawat ;Duboz, Eaphael ;Souris, Marc |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thai Government ;Chiang Mai Rajabhat University |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014 |