| Author | Shrestha, Bijaya Prakash |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. WA-88-15 |
| Subject(s) | Reservoirs--Mathematical models
|
| Note |
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The optimum operation of a multipurpose water resources system with
stochastic inflows and irrigation demands is studied using a stochastic
dynamic programming (SDP). The analysis is carried out with two types of
objective functions: maximization of expected annual energy gene ration
and the minimization of deviation of the release from the targeted
irrigation demand. The stochastic nature of the irrigation demands is
introduced as a stochastic constraint in the former case while in the
latter, it is directly incorporated in the objective function. A
subsystem of the Mahaweli development scheme in Sri Lanka is selected for
the case study. The two serially linked reservoirs of this subsystem,
Victoria and Randenigala, serve as storage reservoirs and the smaller
Rantembe reservoir serves as a runoff hydropower plant. These reservoirs
are investigated along with the aggregate irrigation demand downstream
at Minipe Anicut.
First order (lag one) Markov chain model is assumed to be adequate
to describe the stochastic nature of both inflows to the storage
reservoirs and the aggregate irrigation demand downstream of the
reservoirs. The joint transition probabilities of inflows and irrigation
demands are estimated from the historical data available.
The optimum operation policy derived from the SDP model defines the
targeted storage state for the given set of inflows, irrigation demand
and the initial storage in a given month. The simulation of the reservoir
system operation is carried out based on the SDP generated optimum policy
to evaluate the system performance. The monthly firm power is selected
from the sensitivity analysis for the subsystem.
Finally t he system performance values for SDP models with stochastic
as well as deterministic irrigation demands are compared. The model with
deterministic irrigation demand results in more optimistic policies than
the model with the stochastic irrigation demand. |
| Year | 1988 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Resources Research Engineering (WA) |
| Chairperson(s) | Bogardi, Janos J. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Gupta, Ashim Das ;Paudyal, Guna N.
|
| Scholarship Donor(s) | DAAD, Federal Republic of Germany |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1988 |